The Art of Pitching Evolution: Uncovering Hidden Gems in the MLB
Baseball, like life, is a game of constant evolution. Pitchers, in particular, are in a perpetual dance with improvement, tweaking their arsenals to stay ahead of batters. Recently, I’ve been diving into the data on starting pitchers who’ve shown significant gains in both stuff and command during May and June. What makes this particularly fascinating is how these small sample changes can signal a breakout—or at the very least, a shift in a player’s trajectory. In my opinion, these are the moments fantasy managers live for: spotting the early signs of transformation before the rest of the league catches on.
Aaron Nola: The Command Renaissance
One thing that immediately stands out is Aaron Nola’s resurgence. Personally, I think Nola’s story is a perfect example of how pitching is as much about mental adjustments as it is about physical execution. Through April, Nola’s command was a mere 92 Location+, with his stuff sitting at a decent 104 Stuff+. But since May, he’s seen a 10-point jump in Location+ and a slight uptick in Stuff+ to 110. What many people don’t realize is that these improvements bring Nola closer to his career norms, which is a big deal for a pitcher who’s been struggling with consistency.
Here’s where it gets interesting: Nola’s ERA and WHIP in May were still underwhelming (5.33 ERA, 1.30 WHIP), but his underlying metrics suggest he’s been unlucky. His xFIP sits at 3.70, and his BABIP is a bloated .339. If you take a step back and think about it, this is a classic buy-low scenario. Nola’s command gains, especially with his sinker and cutter being located higher in the zone, are a clear sign of intentional adjustment. I’m not saying he’s an ace overnight, but in shallower formats, he’s worth a gamble.
Braxton Ashcraft: The Pirates’ Rising Star
Braxton Ashcraft is another name that’s been flying under the radar—but not for long. What this really suggests is that Ashcraft is more than just a flash in the pan; he’s a legitimate high-end starter. His Stuff+ and Location+ have both climbed since April, with his breaking pitches seeing the most significant gains. His slider and curveball, in particular, are near-elite, boasting a 19.4% swinging-strike rate.
A detail that I find especially interesting is Ashcraft’s introduction of a splitter this season. While it’s technically labeled as such, it behaves more like a kick change, generating weak contact against lefties (.276 wOBA, .220 xwOBA). This isn’t just a new pitch—it’s a strategic weapon that’s elevating his game. If you’re in a keeper or dynasty league, Ashcraft should be on your radar.
Emmet Sheehan: The Command Artist
Emmet Sheehan is the kind of pitcher who makes you appreciate the subtleties of the game. His command has always been his calling card, but this season, he’s added a layer of complexity with improved stuff. His four-seamer, with its impressive induced vertical break, is a standout, and his gyro-like slider is a whiff machine.
However, what’s been puzzling is his changeup. Despite its above-average movement, it’s been getting hit harder this season, especially against lefties. The data suggests he’s catching too much of the zone, which is something batters are exploiting. This raises a deeper question: Can Sheehan adjust his changeup location to maximize its potential? If he does, we could be looking at a breakout star.
Eury Pérez: The Injured Enigma
Eury Pérez is a name that’s both exciting and frustrating. His elite stuff (118 Stuff+) has never been in question, but his command has been a rollercoaster. Before his hamstring injury, Pérez showed signs of command improvement, particularly with his four-seamer and curveball. His four-seamer, thrown higher in the zone, is a perfect example of how small adjustments can yield big results.
The curveball, however, remains a work in progress. Lefties are crushing it when it’s in the zone, but Pérez’s recent location adjustments could be the key to turning this pitch into a weapon. If you’re in a keeper or dynasty league, Pérez is a prime buy-low candidate. His injury is a setback, but his potential is undeniable.
The Bigger Picture: Trends and Takeaways
What’s striking about these pitchers is how their improvements align with broader trends in the game. High sinkers, for instance, are becoming more prevalent, as pitchers look to exploit the upper part of the zone. Similarly, the rise of hybrid pitches like Ashcraft’s splitter-changeup hybrid shows how pitchers are blurring traditional pitch classifications to gain an edge.
From my perspective, the key takeaway here is the importance of process over outcomes. Nola’s ERA might still be high, but his command gains are real. Ashcraft’s splitter might not be a traditional splitter, but it’s effective. These are the kinds of nuances that separate good pitchers from great ones.
Final Thoughts
Baseball is a game of inches and milliseconds, and these pitchers are proving that small adjustments can lead to big breakthroughs. Personally, I’m keeping a close eye on Nola, Ashcraft, Sheehan, and Pérez—not just for their stats, but for the stories their data tells. If you’re a fantasy manager, now’s the time to act. Because in this game, the early bird doesn’t just get the worm—it gets the win.
